Mexico economic growth third quarter 2026 INEGI estimate, Digi Mart USA News: Mexico’s economy is recovering, but analysts argue that security, regulatory certainty and lasting agreements are needed for growth to be sustained. The discussion follows the most recent economic data and estimates.
On October 30, the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) released its Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT). Seasonally adjusted figures show real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grew 0.9% compared with the second quarter.
Primary activities fell 0.4%, secondary activities rose 0.8% and tertiary activities rose 1.1%. INEGI estimates third-quarter GDP will be 3.2% higher than the same quarter of 2025.
Cumulative growth for January–June 2026 was 1.14% in real terms compared with the first two quarters of 2025. Based on the estimates, INEGI expects January–September 2026 growth of 1.9%.
Primary activities would slow from 2.12% to 2.00%, secondary activities would rise from 0.04% to 1.10%, and tertiary activities would rise from 1.64% to 2.20%.
The 1.9% estimate is above the 1.61% average forecast for full-year 2026 in October’s Banco de México survey of private-sector economists. That would imply a contraction in November and December, which appears unlikely based on INEGI’s figures.
Survey forecasts have been revised upward since reaching a low of 1.07% in June.
Industrial data for the first half of 2026 was weak. Mining grew 3.79% and construction grew 2.13%, but manufacturing fell 1.13%, although food, petroleum and coal products, chemicals, and machinery and equipment manufacturing grew.
The INEGI estimate for July–September shows a recovery, but the author describes it as insufficient for Mexico’s needs.
The peso depreciated after Banco de México kept its rates unchanged at the end of September. The exchange rate for obligations in foreign currency moved from 16.8748 pesos per dollar on September 8 to 18.7592 on October 5.
The author notes that the potential benefit to domestic producers is not yet visible in INEGI’s figures, so third-quarter GDP would need to accelerate. Banco de México announced on November 5 that it would lower its reference rate from 6.50% to 6.25%.
The share of secondary activities in GDP has declined structurally, from 36.28% in 2000 to 30.64% in 2025. Mining fell from 6.81% to 3.26%, construction from 6.47% to 5.89%, and manufacturing from 22.71% to 20.29% over the same period.
INEGI’s Monthly Indicator of Gross Fixed Capital Formation fell 1.8% in August compared with July 2026. Construction showed no growth, machinery and equipment investment fell 3.5%, domestic equipment rose 0.5%, and imported equipment fell 5.8%.
The author argues that sector performance could improve if security for businesses and transport is guaranteed, tax and regulatory rules are certain, and agreements among sectors, including public administration, are honored. Such measures could improve efficiency and stability, reduce pressure on the peso, and limit reliance on interest rates to control inflation.
The author also says the outcome of U.S. midterm elections could ease pressure on regional economic development.
