UFC Fight Night Davey Grant underdog pick at +270, Digi Mart USA News: Many bettors believe the way to wager on the UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Bettors should not be afraid to hunt for them.
Years ago, a predictive model was developed that uses in-fight statistics and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes, applied to combatants with at least 30 completed octagon minutes or five total fights. The model found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.
Such a finding is plausible given the many variables per second in MMA, which make it hard to distinguish between odds of -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose, and terrible bets can win through lucky outcomes.
Each week, the analysis will highlight a favorite underdog bet, typically one showing value in the model, along with an explanation of the fighter’s path to victory. This week’s pick is the best available plus-money option for UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs.
Walker.
Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.
Model’s favorite exact outcome and implied odds: Decision (+263).
Davey Grant turns 40 on Saturday ahead of his fight at the Meta Apex. He is one of the UFC’s clearest examples that age can be just a number.
Since the start of 2022, Grant has won five of his last seven fights and has been the underdog at open in five of those bouts.
The Englishman’s fast pace, attempting 12.54 significant strikes per minute, broke down Ramon Tavares and Adrian Luna Martinetti. His takedown defense of 65% has improved considerably since his early UFC tenure, and he has not been submitted since July 2018.
That includes 15 minutes with Da’Mon Blackshear, one of the division’s best grapplers, who has a 61.1% rate of submissions in wins as a professional.
Elijah Smith’s profile is common in many divisions. The uber-athletic bantamweight is a highlight machine who has suspect moments because he is raw and developing, though he can usually power out of them.
Smith’s striking defense is eight percentage points worse than Grant’s, and his takedown defense is 12 percentage points worse.
Smith has faced two Road to UFC graduates since a razor-thin decision against Vince Morales, in which he was in trouble with a third-round attempt at a d’arce choke. The two fighters finish tied in significant strikes at 40.
Smith’s knockout power and wrestling are a real threat early. The second-generation fighter, son of Gilbert “Midnight Magic” Smith, has finished his last two opponents.
Grant is at an age that defies trends for bantamweight, but he defied expectations again just over six months ago, and bettors still doubt him.
The model does not share that doubt. It gives Grant a 60.5% likelihood of winning the distance striking differential, and Smith’s median takedowns of 2.09 are not extremely high.
Grant has not surrendered multiple takedowns since March 2023.
As expected, Grant’s decision outcome, with a 27.5% likelihood, is the model’s favorite way to back him.
“Dangerous” has not quite lived up to his nickname as an elder statesman, with no knockdowns in his last five bouts. Smith has also never been finished as a professional.
