Burnham welfare reform benefits bill rebellion, Digi Mart USA News (United Kingdom): Behind closed doors in Downing Street and in his No 10 North Manchester outpost, Andy Burnham is often heard telling aides: “We are going to do this because it is the right thing to do.”
While the Prime Minister has been criticized for “shooting from the lip” by making public statements that surprise his ministers and MPs, the “right thing to do” mantra has impressed longstanding government figures that what he says in public is more than a line for social media. He actually means it.
That is a stark contrast with Burnham’s predecessors, notably Sir Keir Starmer, who were often criticized for lacking the ideology or conviction to follow through on their pledges. When it comes to welfare reform, the most hazardous issue for any Labour leader, the question is whether Burnham can reduce the benefits bill “as soon as we possibly can” without repeating the backbench rebellion that forced Starmer into retreat.
That rebellion was more than embarrassing for Starmer. It established the problems that led to his downfall a year later.
On Friday, the Prime Minister said he was prepared to take “difficult decisions” to bring the benefits bill down, telling Times Radio this would require some “up front” investment, raising the prospect that the bill could grow even higher before it starts to fall.
Burnham now faces what may be the biggest test of “doing the right thing.” Two major government reviews on welfare, by Alan Milburn and Stephen Timms, are imminent and could come as early as next week. Milburn’s report concerns getting young people who are not in employment, education or training (NEETs) into work, while Timms’ conclusions concern disability benefits reform.
Both are expected to trigger new legislation overhauling the welfare system, which Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said on Friday would likely be introduced next year.
The proposals are also likely to ignite a fresh debate among Labour MPs over how tough the reform should be. Some MPs, including those representing Red Wall constituencies and mindful of the electoral threat from the Conservatives and Reform UK, want clear direction on bringing down the benefits bill, which is currently projected to rise from £353bn to £431bn by 2031-32.
The total welfare bill is expected to rise next year because of new employment support measures introduced following the Milburn and Timms reviews. Burnham will argue that these plans will reduce costs in the long run because more people will be helped into work.
Other MPs, from the left wing and Burnham’s own soft-left caucus, are wary that the reforms must not weigh too heavily on sanctions.
Rachael Maskell, who led last year’s successful welfare rebellion against Starmer, said she wants to see the “detail and evidence” that the proposals will help people on benefits rather than punish them before committing to support them. The Labour MP for York Central said ministers will need to “work hard” to ensure the reforms do not punish people.
She told The i Paper that while the ambition to ensure every young person can work is right, “there are ways of delivering the social security which could bring benefit, rather than sanction.” On disability benefits, she said, “I want there to be positive support to help all who can get into work, but for those that can’t, then the support needs to be there.”
Allies of Burnham are confident that, unlike Starmer, the Prime Minister has enough political capital to bring Labour MPs on side, citing his “emotional intelligence” and personal charm. They also point to the fact that Louise Haigh, one of the Starmer welfare rebels of 2025, is now First Secretary of State and one of the most powerful women in government.
Many Labour MPs believe the Prime Minister genuinely cares about people on benefits, after he said at PMQs in September that national security should not come at the expense of social security.
Allies say it would be good for the Prime Minister, who took office without a general election or Labour leadership contest, to face a major test that would make him stronger going into an election. If he can cut the benefits bill without a rebellion, as Starmer did not, allies say this would solidify his position ahead of polling day.
Despite rumors that Burnham is preparing to call an early election, The i Paper understands this is not the plan. The Prime Minister wants more time to make his mark on welfare, social care and Brexit before presenting his plans to voters.
This includes his 10-year plan, which he said in an interview with The Economist could now arrive in early 2027 rather than before the end of this year.
Burnham has pledged he would not preside over “crude cuts” to the benefits bill. The welfare plans are expected to include job coaching for young people as well as more support on issues such as mental health.
Speaking to Times Radio, he said: “I am prepared to take difficult decisions because I can’t accept the idea that we have a million or more young people in their 20s on benefits. It’s not good for them.
It’s not good for anybody. So there does need to be quite radical change in the way we support young people.”
The economic backdrop adds further pressure. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4 per cent this week, the first rise since 2023, adding to cost-of-living pressures.
Oil is currently around $100 a barrel. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s optimistic scenario from last week’s Budget assumes an “orderly recovery” with oil falling to $55 a barrel in the second quarter of 2027, while its “severe shock” scenario sees oil peaking near $115 a barrel in the first half of 2027 and remaining high until 2031.
Those figures depend partly on whether Donald Trump relaunches military action against Iran. Inflation is already well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.
Against this backdrop, Burnham taking “difficult decisions” on welfare, with more upfront spending next year, may be a hard argument to make to voters, even if he wins over his Labour MPs.
