Trump lame duck risk for Mexico after U.S. midterm elections, Digi Mart USA News: The outcome of the legislative elections scheduled for November 3 could have direct consequences for Mexico during the final two years of Donald Trump’s administration, especially on security, the fight against drug trafficking, migration and trade.
Specialists consulted by Expansión Política said none of the main scenarios is entirely favorable to the Mexican government. If Democrats gain ground in the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump would lose room to advance his domestic agenda and could concentrate his efforts on foreign policy, where the U.S.
presidency has greater freedom of action.
In that context, the president could enter a condition known as a “lame duck,” a term used to describe a politically weakened president with less control over the legislative branch. For Mexico, the risk would be increased pressure on issues that matter to Trump’s political base, such as border security and the fight against drug trafficking.
Rafael Velázquez, president of the Center for Teaching and Analysis of Mexico’s Foreign Policy and a professor at the Autonomous University of Baja California, explained that an adverse Congress would reduce Trump’s chances of presenting and passing domestic initiatives. “In this context, one option could be for Trump to appear more aggressive in foreign policy, where he would have greater freedom of action,” the specialist said in the report.
José Andrés Sumano, a professor at El Colegio de México, agreed that a president weakened domestically could seek political results through greater pressure on Mexico. The issues cited include combating criminal organizations and broader participation by U.S.
agencies. The analyses also contemplate the possibility of new demands related to Mexican politicians allegedly linked to drug trafficking, though any such accusation would require evidence, judicial proceedings and the involvement of the relevant authorities of both countries.
According to the experts, a U.S. government with less domestic backing could adopt less predictable decisions.
That would keep pressure on the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, which has had to negotiate with Washington on migration, trade and security matters.
A Republican victory would also have effects. The opposite scenario would not eliminate uncertainty either.
If the Republican Party retains one chamber or wins control of both, Trump could be strengthened for the second half of his term. According to the analysis, a stronger political position would allow the U.S.
president to maintain the system of annual reviews of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (USMCA), rather than backing an extension for another 10 years. This arrangement would give Washington greater negotiating leverage at each review.
Sumano considered that Trump could prefer to keep the current model because it preserves his capacity to exert pressure on trading partners. Even so, the specialists do not anticipate an immediate rupture of the agreement, given Mexico’s importance to North American production and trade chains.
Velázquez estimated that the USMCA could continue regardless of the electoral result, although negotiations would be conditioned by the composition of Congress and the political strategy adopted by the White House.
Two complex years for the bilateral relationship. For the Sheinbaum government, the remaining two years of Trump’s term could sustain tensions over security, migration and trade.
Mexico has sought to respond to U.S. demands and reduce the risk of tariff measures, but the electoral process may again raise the tone of the debate.
Specialists stressed that Mexico often becomes a domestic political issue during U.S. campaigns.
For that reason, the November result will not only define the balance of power in Washington but also the conditions under which the bilateral relationship develops in the second half of the presidential term.
