Mexican states safest in a nuclear war, Digi Mart USA News: Amid tensions between the United States and Iran and rumors that President Donald Trump could order a nuclear strike against Iranian territory, a question has emerged about the consequences a conflict of this magnitude could have for Mexico and which of its states might face lower exposure.
Although Mexico has no nuclear weapons and is part of an international agreement that prohibits such weapons in the region, a large-scale war could produce effects beyond the directly attacked territories, including climate disruption, supply problems and food shortages.
Mexico has a particular status as a party to the Treaty of Tlatelolco, signed in Mexico City in 1967, which established Latin America and the Caribbean as a nuclear-weapon-free zone. According to the National Institute of Nuclear Research (ININ) and the Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean (OPANAL), the agreement prohibits its members from developing, acquiring or using such weapons.
However, this status does not mean Mexican territory would be fully protected. Consequences would depend on the number of detonations, their locations, the intensity of the conflict and atmospheric patterns.
Even without explosions inside the country, international trade and the supply of food, fuel, medicine and other essential products could be affected.
No official classification identifies the safest Mexican states during a nuclear war. Some central and southern territories could nonetheless be analyzed for their distance from the U.S.
border, their agricultural activity and the lower concentration of certain industrial facilities.
Oaxaca has rural areas and agricultural activity, although its mountainous geography, connectivity and unequal access to services would present difficulties. Chiapas has agricultural regions and water resources, but vulnerabilities persist in infrastructure and access to essential services.
Some interior areas of Guerrero are far from the northern border, though security conditions, infrastructure and exposure to natural hazards would prevent it from being considered a guaranteed refuge.
Michoacán and Yucatán also present exposure factors. Michoacán has significant agri-food activity, although its logistics corridors and urban centers could be affected if transport and supply routes were interrupted.
Yucatán’s location in the southeast means greater distance from certain North American conflict scenarios, but it also faces vulnerabilities related to water, climate and dependence on external supplies.
In any of these territories, distance from a possible impact zone would not guarantee access to drinking water, food, shelter or medical care during an emergency.
A study published in the journal Risk Analysis by Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson identified five island countries with relatively favorable conditions for withstanding the consequences of a nuclear winter. The research considered factors such as food production, adaptive capacity and resilience to an abrupt reduction in sunlight.
The countries identified were Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.
