Safest Mexican states in a nuclear war, Digi Mart USA News: Amid tensions between the United States and Iran and rumors that President Donald Trump could order a nuclear strike against Iranian territory, a question has arisen about the consequences such a conflict would have for Mexico and which of its states might offer lower exposure. The report, published by El Mañana de Nuevo Laredo, notes that the country has no nuclear weapons and is part of an international agreement prohibiting such weapons in the region.
Even so, the publication says a large-scale war could produce effects well beyond the directly attacked territories, including climate disruption, supply problems and food shortages. Mexico is a party to the Treaty of Tlatelolco, signed in Mexico City in 1967, which established Latin America and the Caribbean as a nuclear-weapon-free zone.
According to the National Institute of Nuclear Research (ININ) and the Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean (OPANAL), the treaty prohibits its members from developing, acquiring or using such weapons.
The article stresses that this status does not mean Mexican territory would be fully protected. The consequences would depend on the number of detonations, their locations, the intensity of the conflict and atmospheric patterns.
Even without explosions inside the country, international trade and the supply of food, fuel, medicine and other essential products could be affected.
No official classification identifies the safest Mexican states during a nuclear war. However, the report says some central and southern territories could be assessed based on their distance from the U.S.
border, their agricultural activity and the lower concentration of certain industrial facilities. Oaxaca, which has rural areas and agricultural activity, is mentioned, although its mountainous geography, connectivity and unequal access to services would pose difficulties.
Chiapas is also cited for its agricultural regions and water resources, but the article notes persistent vulnerabilities in infrastructure and access to essential services. Some interior areas of Guerrero are described as far from the northern border, though its security conditions, infrastructure and exposure to natural hazards would prevent it from being considered a guaranteed refuge.
Michoacán and Yucatán are also named as states that could be included in a risk assessment. Michoacán has significant agri-food activity, though its logistics corridors and urban centers could be affected if transport and supply routes were interrupted.
Yucatán’s location in the southeast means greater distance from certain North American conflict scenarios, but it also faces vulnerabilities related to water, climate and dependence on external supplies.
The article emphasizes that, in any of these territories, distance from a possible impact zone would not guarantee access to safe drinking water, food, shelter or medical care during an emergency. It also cites research published in the journal Risk Analysis by Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson, which identified five island nations with relatively favorable conditions for withstanding a nuclear winter: Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.
The study considered factors such as food production, adaptive capacity and resilience to an abrupt reduction in sunlight.
