Sheinbaum and a possible Trump electoral defeat, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico): The United States midterm elections mark a turning point in the bilateral relationship, where the Mexican government’s hopes for relief from a possible Republican defeat collide with a complex political reality. Far from reducing tension, an electoral setback for Donald Trump could trigger an even more belligerent stance from the White House, while a Congress dominated by Democrats would keep commercial and security pressure on Mexico intact.
At the National Palace, officials approached the midterm elections with a pyrrhic victory: threats that more charges were imminent against Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and other Morena figures did not materialize, according to journalist Raymundo Riva Palacio in his column today. The pressures were contained internally and the coercion did not become public, while the second part of the strategy was to hold on in the expectation that a Democratic victory in the Capitol would change the toxic and threatening dynamic of President Donald Trump and the White House hawks.
The analyst recalls that Nate Silver forecast a Democratic “blue tsunami,” which may have given relief to President Claudia Sheinbaum’s team, which thought the nightmare of the last two years would end. However, Riva Palacio warns that “no hasty conclusions should be drawn,” since Democrats have historically held more negative policies toward Mexico than Republicans and, except for Bill Clinton, none has invested significant political capital in favor of the country in times of need.
Polls indicate that Democrats will regain the House of Representatives, take the Senate and win most governorships, leaving Trump with the disapproval of six in 10 Americans. Nevertheless, the columnist notes that presidents such as Harry Truman and Richard Nixon were in worse shape at their midterms and survived, so he warns: “They cannot bury Trump at the National Palace, even if Republicans lose.”
Given the possible scenarios, namely that Democrats win only the House, also dominate the Senate, or that polls fail and Republicans retain power, Riva Palacio rules out a structural change of course in the bilateral relationship. If Democrats win, Mexico would have more guarantees of constitutional channels due to legislative pressure, but “things would not essentially change.” The specialist recalls a key fact: “It is sometimes forgotten that the first president to build a wall on the border was Jimmy Carter in 1978, and that it was Barack Obama who carried out the largest number of deportations.”
On the trade front, although there would be greater pressure for Trump to explain the cost of tariffs, they would continue to exist, and if the USMCA had to pass through Congress, Democrats would be a “headache,” as they were in 1993 during the NAFTA negotiations. The columnist also stresses that offsetting trade with the United States through greater exchange with China is not the solution, since rapid expansion with that nation would generate new U.S.
demands regarding origin, investment and economic security.
The most delicate issue is security, as the fight against cartels, fentanyl and political complicity crosses party lines. Riva Palacio recalls that the fentanyl epidemic exploded in 2019 under Joe Biden, a period in which Democrats and Republicans spoke of the “narco-government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador,” and when a U.S.
team captured Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada without notifying the National Palace.
Finally, the journalist warns of the paradox of a Trump electoral defeat: far from calming tensions, “it is highly likely he will harden his stance to demonstrate he controls the economic agenda” and intensify pressure on Sheinbaum. This could include greater demands for results against narcotrafficking or even yielding to hawks such as Stephen Miller to undertake military action in Mexico.
Riva Palacio therefore concludes that “Sheinbaum must not be complacent, nor should her government interpret a Democratic victory as a guarantee of less U.S. pressure,” since the opposite is probably true.
