Banque de France growth forecast 2026, Digi Mart USA News (Lyon, France): French economic growth was already weak and is expected to be even weaker, according to the central bank. The Banque de France had until now projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.4% for the full year 2026, but its governor, Emmanuel Moulin, acknowledged on Tuesday, November 3, that this target now appears difficult to achieve.
Speaking in Lyon at the Journées de l’économie (Jéco), Moulin addressed the unexpected decline in economic activity in the third quarter. “Unfortunately, I think that’s a bit too optimistic,” he said about the current growth forecast, according to Bloomberg.
“We will certainly need to revise it somewhat, slightly downward,” he added.
To reach the 0.4% growth still anticipated by the Banque de France, the French economy would need to post a very strong expansion over the last three months of the year. The governor clearly considers such a scenario unlikely.
The expected revision highlights the persistent weakness of the French economy. With annual growth that could ultimately fall below 0.4%, France would move closer to stagnation, although a slightly positive GDP increase is still different from a recession.
France is nearly last in the eurozone for the most recent quarter, with only Lithuania recording weaker growth over the period. Weak growth also complicates the government’s budget outlook.
Less dynamic activity means, all else being equal, lower tax revenues than expected, notably from value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax. It could also weigh on employment and social accounts.
The Banque de France is due to update its macroeconomic projections in December, after the next monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). The latest figures published by the national statistics agency Insee on October 30 explain this pessimism.
French GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter, after stagnating in the second quarter and declining by 0.2% in the first. In other words, the French economy has recorded no quarter of positive growth since the beginning of the year.
Insee calculated that the carry-over growth for 2026 reached only 0.2% at the end of the third quarter. In practical terms, this means that if economic activity remained perfectly stable over the last three months of the year, French growth would be limited to 0.2% for 2026 as a whole.
Reaching the 0.4% still anticipated by the Banque de France would therefore require a GDP increase of roughly 0.8% in the fourth quarter, far above the pace observed since the start of the year.
