Remittances to Mexico projected to rise 4.1% in 2027, Digi Mart USA News: Remittances received by Mexico could grow 4.1 percent in 2027, reaching $66.7 billion, according to BBVA Mexico. The bank attributes the forecast partly to the rebalancing of power in the United States after the previous day’s election, in which Democrats won decisively over Republicans, the party of President Donald Trump.
In presenting the 2026 Migration and Remittances Yearbook, prepared by the bank and the National Population Council (Conapo), BBVA said remittances are expected to rise 2.6 percent by the end of 2026, bringing the flow to $64.1 billion.
The document states that the electoral results could be favorable for documented and undocumented migrants, and that the new House could block the budget allocated to migration control. It notes that migration policy actions fall mainly under the Executive Branch, so the future of migration and remittances remains uncertain.
Since the start of his second term, the Trump administration has tightened its policy toward migrants. The border has remained practically closed to irregular migration since February 2025, with fewer than 10,000 monthly apprehensions on average through August 2026, compared with 250,000 in December 2023.
A 1 percent tax on remittances has also been added.
Inside the country, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) averaged about 34,000 monthly admissions to detention centers in 2026, compared with an average of 5,800 under Joe Biden. The asylum approval rate fell from 28.5 percent in 2023 to 4.8 percent in 2025, and approved permanent residencies dropped from 65,000 in January 2025 to 34,000 in January 2026.
According to the yearbook, citizenships granted fell from 75,000 to 33,000 over the same period. In addition, in the first quarter of 2026, Mexicans accounted for 71.6 percent of border apprehensions, compared with 36.9 percent in the same period of 2024.
Remittances resumed their growth path in September, rising 1.6 percent year over year. Previously, there were eight months of declines between April and November 2025, and six consecutive increases from February to July 2026, followed by a 3.6 percent drop in August.
The yearbook describes the year-end outlook as “structural weakness but driven by the exchange rate” and expects the stronger currency to support October flows.
The yearbook identifies a structural factor: the number of Mexican migrants in the United States fell from 12.6 million in 2025 to 11.5 million in 2026. In 2025, remittances fell 3.9 percent to $62.5 billion, ending 11 years of growth from $23.1 billion in 2013 to $65 billion in 2024.
The Mexico-resident population that lived in the United States a year earlier exceeded 60,000 people per quarter in 2025, compared with an average of about 40,000 between 2022 and 2024, and reached roughly 90,000 per quarter in the first half of 2026.
Mexico is the second-largest recipient of remittances in the world, with $62.472 billion in 2025, behind only India, which recorded $104.675 billion. Remittances equaled 3.4 percent of Mexico’s GDP and exceeded the combined value of foreign direct investment and crude oil exports.
