Trump Iran war scenarios, Digi Mart USA News: The threat of a major new US military assault on Iran, following the Republicans’ historic midterm losses, has raised concerns among intelligence and defence sources about the potential fallout for the UK. US President Donald Trump has said he is close to deciding whether to end the war, but warned on Friday that he may “destroy what is left of the country” after months of negotiations failed to produce a ceasefire.
Among the scenarios being discussed is a tactical nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground facility linked to Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme. Reports say Iran is distributing iodine tablets to protect people living nearby from radiation.
While a nuclear strike is considered unlikely, sources say the fact it is being discussed highlights concerns about Trump’s unpredictability.
A senior military source told The i Paper: “Trump has never graciously lost an election in his life.” The source added that intelligence circles believe he may seek to create a security crisis so severe that he cannot step down in two years’ time.
Matthew Dunn, a former MI6 intelligence officer, said British security services would be hugely concerned about domestic security ramifications if Trump strikes Iran after his midterm defeat. He said the UK faces significant risk of Iranian retaliation, noting that Iran has targeted Britain in recent years and earlier.
Although the UK did not directly take part in bombing Iran, the US has used RAF bases such as Fairford to house bombers that are dispatched to Iran. In October, a court heard that a group of men were ordered by a handler known as ‘Ali’, whom police believe was working on behalf of Iran, to drive vans loaded with petrol to RAF Fairford.
MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum warned last month about an increase in Iran-linked aggression against Jewish sites and military bases, with the potential for more plots on UK soil if Trump strikes. Dunn said MI5, working with GCHQ and MI6, would be highly concerned.
Former CIA agent John Kiriakou says White House sources told him Trump is considering a tactical nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain to destroy everything underground. Kiriakou said Trump “wants to break that final taboo” on using nuclear weapons.
Alastair Crooke, a former MI6 officer who served in the Middle East, said such a strike “will be a performative act,” arguing that a tactical nuclear weapon is not an effective deep-penetrating weapon against a granite mountain.
Earth-penetrating weapons such as the US B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb have not undergone a full explosive nuclear detonation test. Crooke added that Israel, widely believed to have nuclear weapons, could also launch nuclear missiles from submarines.
Any nuclear strike by Israel or the US could dramatically escalate the risk of a broader global conflict and retaliatory attacks.
The possible strike comes as Israel attempts to form a new government, with Benjamin Netanyahu fighting to stay in power after his coalition lost its majority in the October 27 election. If Israel and the US restart strikes, especially with a nuclear bomb, the move could prove highly controversial amid growing anti-war sentiment.
Another option would be massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure, or expanding strikes to threaten the security of the regime. Trump could also target Iran’s coastal and air defence radar sites as a precursor to air strikes on key military targets.
Benjamin Jensen, a director of defence at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said that if Tehran launched an immediate response as threatened, the benefits of a limited strike would be low. “Limited strikes support negotiations but risk changing the risk calculus for Tehran and encouraging the regime to expand the conflict,” he said.
Brian Haggerty, a former senior CIA analyst, said Trump could launch “defensive strikes” while continuing the US naval blockade to restrict the flow of Iranian oil to the global market. Bradley Bowman, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, asked: “We can try to end the war, but what do we do if the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz?”
A raid by special operations forces could target Isfahan, where Iran is believed to store enriched uranium in underground facilities, but such an operation would be extremely complex and risky. In 2024, some 120 Israeli commandos from Unit 669 and Shaldag teams raided an underground missile production facility in Syria.
In April, US special forces carried out rescue missions inside Iran to extract two downed pilots after their F-15 fighter jet was shot down, and also captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.
Military assessments suggest extracting the estimated 440kg of 60 percent-enriched uranium Iran holds would require more than 1,000 personnel, heavy excavation machinery, makeshift airfield establishments, and airborne support from regular units such as the 82nd Airborne Division. Jensen said such a mission would take days rather than hours and that Iran could use ballistic missiles against sites where US teams were extracting uranium.
There is virtually no political will in Washington, particularly within Trump’s MAGA base, for another costly ground war in the Middle East. In March, Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the limits of airpower for overthrowing the Iranian government, saying: “You can’t do it only from the air.
There has to be a ground component.” Israel, which does not share a border with Iran, lacks enough troops for a ground invasion on its own, meaning US troops would have to deploy in large numbers.
A more limited ground operation could be attempted to free the Strait of Hormuz and ensure passage of ships through the key waterway, which is effectively closed to commercial shipping. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has warned of a war “without geographical limitation” if the country is attacked again.
