White Christmas chances in North Rhine-Westphalia, Digi Mart USA News (North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany): For many people, snow is an essential part of the perfect Christmas. However, the chances of snow on the holidays in North Rhine-Westphalia are generally poor, according to data from the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst).
In Cologne, there was snow on Christmas morning (December 25) only four times in the past 75 years, a chance of roughly five percent. In Dortmund, it was white six times in the same period, a probability of about eight percent.
Münster recorded snow on Christmas morning ten times, or just under 13 percent. Bielefeld fares somewhat better, with snow in 15 of the past 75 years, giving a chance of roughly 20 percent.
Naturally, the best chances for a snowy Christmas landscape are found at higher elevations. Even on the Kahler Asten in the Sauerland, however, snow is not guaranteed.
Since 1950, snow has covered the ground on most Christmas mornings there, but in 16 years the landscape stayed green. Historically, the probability of snow at Christmas on the Kahler Asten is around 80 percent.
WDR meteorologist Jürgen Vogt says it is not yet possible to say seriously whether there will be a white Christmas this year, as it is simply too early for a reliable statement. About 40 days before Christmas, first experimental long-range forecasts appear, but they do not calculate a specific weather situation for the holidays.
Instead, they only indicate how temperatures could develop compared with the long-term average.
The current trend looks rather unfavorable: the latest calculations point to temperatures about two to four degrees above the long-term average.
Vogt cautions against taking headlines about snow too seriously. “It is always nice when hopes are raised,” he said.
“However, most of these headlines are half-baked and have no basis at all.”
Climate change and the milder temperatures it brings have also reduced the chance of snow overall. “Colder, snowy winters still occur, but they are becoming increasingly rare,” Vogt said.
The most memorable recent example remains Christmas 2010, when it snowed across Germany, a rarity especially in the Rhineland.
