Racing.com analyst David Strehlau Champions Day tips, Digi Mart USA News (Flemington): Tempted might be the best sprinter in Saturday’s Group 1 Champions Sprint, but Racing.com analyst David Strehlau says there is a genuine opportunity to bring the favourite undone at Flemington.
Speaking on The Analyser alongside Tim Yeatman, Strehlau identified Caballus and Mazu as two horses capable of capitalising if the tactics between Tempted and fellow leading contender Joliestar become a factor in the 1200-metre contest. Tempted arrives following her outstanding victory in The Everest, but Strehlau believes the barrier draw and potential racing pattern create an interesting scenario.
With Tempted drawn in barrier nine and Joliestar immediately to her outside in barrier 10, Strehlau expects James McDonald to be mindful of the favourite throughout the race. “The best horse, if Tempted wins, like, it’s a no-brainer.
She’s the best horse in the race. She needs bad luck for her to lose.”
Strehlau says the potential tactical battle could allow the on-speed runners to establish an advantage, particularly if the expected rain affects the Flemington surface. His two preferred alternatives are Caballus, trained by Bjorn Baker, and Ciaron Maher’s Mazu.
Caballus arrives after finishing third in the Russell Balding Stakes, while Mazu has demonstrated his ability to perform well down the Flemington straight.
Strehlau believes the pair could be ideally positioned if the leading fancies become preoccupied with each other. “If they’re jostling, the two favourites trying to get each other beat …
well, Caballus and Mazu are off and gone,” he said. The analyst has backed both horses each way, although he readily acknowledges Tempted remains the class runner in the field.
While Strehlau is prepared to challenge the Champions Sprint favourite, he sees no reason to oppose superstar Autumn Glow in the Group 1 Champions Mile. The Chris Waller-trained mare makes her first appearance outside New South Wales, with James McDonald booked to ride.
Strehlau says the $1.22 favourite could start considerably shorter.
“You don’t. You just watch the best horse go around and hope that she wins,” he said when asked how to oppose Autumn Glow.
Rather than backing Autumn Glow at a prohibitive price, Strehlau says the value lies in identifying which horse will finish second. His preferred runner is Tom Kitten, who he believes is primed to perform strongly after an encouraging effort behind Lindermann in the Craven Plate.
The addition of blinkers and the possibility of rain further strengthen his confidence. “Tom Kitten will run second.
I think he’s flying,” Strehlau said. Strehlau also disagrees with the early market for the Group 1 Champions Stakes, believing Cox Plate winner Cosmic Crusader should be favourite ahead of Aeliana.
The Andrea Leek-trained galloper defeated Aeliana and Birdman in the Cox Plate, and Strehlau says the result provides compelling evidence he can repeat the performance over 2000 metres. “I thought he should be favoured over her,” Strehlau said.
However, Birdman is another horse the analyst is keen to support after his luckless Cox Plate performance.
Strehlau believes the track conditions will play an important role in how he divides his investment between the pair. He intends to favour Cosmic Crusader if the track becomes particularly wet, while Birdman will be his stronger play if the surface remains around Soft 6.
Strehlau’s confidence extends beyond the three Group 1 features, with Superfabulistic identified as one of his leading bets on the nine-race program. The mare contests the Ronald McDonald House VIC/TAS Mile, with Strehlau believing she was desperately unlucky not to win at Warwick Farm last start.
She drops significantly in weight and draws barrier two, creating an opportunity to race prominently.
Strehlau expects the forecast south-southwesterly wind to favour horses racing near the speed in the circle races. “I thought Superfabulistic was one of the better bets on the program,” he said.
He has also supported Nations Call in the same event.
The Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes presents another opportunity for Strehlau, who is prepared to oppose former Melbourne Cup contender Defiantly. The international stayer was ruled out of the Melbourne Cup after a hoof issue and instead takes his place in Saturday’s 2600-metre contest.
Strehlau questions whether the race is an ideal assignment and believes Defiantly could be better suited over a longer distance.
He instead wants to follow the Moonee Valley Gold Cup form, with Pinhole his preferred selection ahead of King Pedro. Pinhole was denied clear running at Moonee Valley, while King Pedro also encountered traffic difficulties.
Strehlau believes both can be competitive again, but has made Pinhole the stronger betting result.
Strehlau also likes Cripps each-way in the Fisher Stakes, saying the Patrick Kearney-trained sprinter has the ability to progress into stronger company. Too Darn Discreet is his preferred runner in the Matriarch Stakes, with a favourable weight swing and excuses from her previous start adding to the appeal.
In the final race, Strehlau is looking beyond the favourites to Brave Design, Verdoux and King Tut. Brave Design resumes after being gelded and has impressed in recent jumpouts, while Verdoux has endured luckless runs.
Strehlau believes both can perform strongly at attractive odds.
With the potential for rain and strong winds to influence the racing pattern, the analyst expects Champions Day to provide plenty of opportunities for punters willing to look beyond the obvious favourites.
