Mexico tariff relief after U.S. midterm elections and USMCA review, Digi Mart USA News: The results of the U.S. midterm elections open a possibility for Mexico to seek better trade conditions and advance pending issues under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
However, the Democratic victory does not guarantee a reduction in tariffs or immediate changes to President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Specialists in bilateral relations and foreign trade said the new composition of the U.S. Congress could create greater checks on White House decisions and open negotiating space that Mexico should use to defend its interests.
Juan Carlos Barrón Pastor, director of the Center for Research on North America (CISAN) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), said the results represent an opportunity to strengthen the treaty, particularly because of the shift of votes toward Democrats in the four border states, where there is significant trade with Mexico.
Barrón Pastor said opposition to Trump’s tariff policies could be used by Mexican diplomacy to push for the continuation of the agreement and advance other items on the bilateral agenda. However, Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s Secretary of Economy, warned that the change in the U.S.
political balance will not automatically modify tariff conditions, because the president retains the power to impose duties.
Ebrard acknowledged that the review of the treaty could lead to modifications or additions, though he said it is still too early to anticipate what they would be. He also said Mexico expects to resume talks with Washington in a fourth round of negotiations, which was postponed until after the elections.
Among the issues Mexico seeks to resolve are the tariffs affecting the automotive, steel and aluminum industries, as well as the need to provide greater certainty for investments and regional supply chains. Pedro Casas Alatriste, vice president and chief executive of the American Chamber of Commerce Mexico (AmCham), said the election result could lead Trump to soften his tariff policy and adopt a more favorable stance toward trading partners.
However, he said tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum are being negotiated through a separate channel from the USMCA review.
Kenneth Smith Ramos, former head of the technical negotiation of the treaty, warned that the new Congress will have greater ability to oversee the trade decisions of the U.S. administration through hearings and testimony by officials.
He also anticipated greater Democratic pressure on labor and environmental issues. Smith Ramos ruled out immediate changes to the negotiations as a result of the election and said Mexico should seek tariff certainty to prevent Trump from continuing to use tariffs as a pressure tool.
Arturo Sarukhán, former Mexican ambassador to the United States, said the country needs to strengthen its diplomatic presence and lobbying of U.S. lawmakers.
He warned that Democrats could push initiatives to reverse tariffs imposed on Canada, but Mexico has no equivalent proposal to defend its interests.
From the business sector, the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco Servytur) asked that Mexico enter negotiations with technical preparation, clear objectives and dialogue that includes both Democrats and Republicans. The election results therefore change the political landscape in Washington but do not resolve the trade differences.
For Mexico, the challenge will be to turn this new balance of power into concrete agreements that improve access to the U.S. market and give companies certainty.
