France 2026 GDP growth forecast Banque de France, Digi Mart USA News: Economic growth in France in 2026 is now expected to be “around 0.3%” rather than 0.4%, according to Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin. He made the remarks Tuesday on BFM Business.
The Banque de France had previously projected growth of 0.4% for the year. Moulin said that estimate was based on an assumption of positive growth in the third quarter, but the economy instead recorded a contraction of 0.1%.
Moulin nevertheless said France could avoid recession in the fourth quarter. “We think growth will be moderately positive in the fourth quarter,” he said.
In its latest economic outlook, the Banque de France said the situation remains very uncertain and that there is a lack of visibility regarding the impact of social mobilizations, which add to a very complex geopolitical environment.
Moulin described the unemployment rate of 8.2% in the third quarter as “rather good news,” but said that France’s unemployment rate remains higher than that of its European neighbors. He said France still has progress to make to reach full employment.
Asked about the 1.6% increase in the minimum wage (SMIC) announced Monday, November 9, by the government, Moulin said that many people in France are already paid the minimum wage. He argued that boosts to the SMIC tend to compress the wage scale and do not allow purchasing-power gains for people slightly above the minimum wage.
