Democratic midterm win and Trump’s trade pressure on Mexico and USMCA, Digi Mart USA News: Not even a Democratic takeover of the U.S. Congress would guarantee relief for Mexico.
Research centers coincide that Donald Trump could instead harden his protectionist policy during 2027 and keep the future of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (USMCA, known in Mexico as T-MEC) uncertain.
Speaking on the day of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the Laboratory of Analysis in Trade, Economics and Business (LACEN) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) said that Democrats winning one or both chambers of Congress would not mean Trump loses the tools he has used to pressure trading partners, or that he will be stopped.
According to LACEN’s analysis, rather than moderating his economic policy, Trump will, as a domino effect, “strengthen his economic nationalism and commercial patriotism” in 2027. The document states that Trump will defend U.S.
commercial security and domestic supply to productive chains in strategic sectors in order to guarantee national prosperity and security and reduce vulnerability to external supplies.
LACEN also expects that if Democratic legislators try to block the Republican president’s policies, he will turn to different forms of presidential veto. The analysis platform Integralia likewise agrees that a Democratic victory would not necessarily represent a better scenario for Mexico.
It added that the more obstacles Trump encounters inside the United States, the greater his interest in concentrating on foreign policy could become.
Integralia said the midterms will change the checks on Trump but will not necessarily reduce pressure on Mexico. A Democratic majority in one or both chambers would increase investigations and oversight of the executive branch, intensifying internal political confrontation.
The Republican president could also seek a foreign policy path to build his presidential legacy, in which case Mexico would again be at the center of U.S. demands.
Combating drug trafficking and organized crime, which enjoys broader bipartisan consensus than other international issues, could gain prominence and translate into new demands on Mexico. Republican defeats in states affected by tariffs could also increase pressure to moderate some trade measures.
Integralia said that regardless of whether Democrats win Congress, USMCA negotiations will continue under the uncertainty that opened in July, when the United States refused to extend the trade agreement for another 16 years. That refusal opened a period of annual reviews.
Although the treaty remains in force under current provisions, disagreements persist over rules of origin, inputs from outside the region, and Chinese participation in supply chains.
Pending issues include rules of origin, which determine what percentage of a product must be manufactured within North America to receive treaty benefits; the use of inputs from countries outside the region; and particularly China’s participation in supply chains.
According to LACEN, the U.S. president has several legal instruments he could use to protect domestic industry and restrict imports, even if Democrats gain control of Congress.
One is the Buy American Act, enacted in 1933 and linked by LACEN’s analysis to 2010, which allows favoring purchases of U.S.-made products over foreign ones in certain federal government procurements.
Another tool cited by LACEN is the National Security Act of 1947. However, it does not by itself establish a general power to impose tariffs, but forms part of the U.S.
security and defense legal framework.
Among relevant trade restriction provisions is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, which allows the president to adjust imports of certain products when an investigation determines that their entry threatens to harm U.S. national security.
