Kansas City Chiefs quarterback sneak decisions, Digi Mart USA News: The date was October 17, 2019. The 4-2 Chiefs were facing the 2-4 Broncos in the same stadium where they blew an eleven-point fourth-quarter lead on Sunday.
It was the Thursday Night Football matchup to open Week 7, with the Chiefs looking to bounce back after consecutive home losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
With exactly ten minutes remaining in the second quarter and the Chiefs leading 10-6, Patrick Mahomes lunged forward for a two-yard gain on a quarterback sneak to extend the drive. On the play, Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap, which caused him to leave Mile High Field with the assistance of team trainers.
The initial fear was that the Chiefs’ 24-year-old reigning MVP quarterback would be lost for the season, and fans held their breath that Thursday night.
That fear did not materialize. Mahomes missed only two full games, and the Chiefs went on to win the first of their three Super Bowls in this era.
However, the column argues that this one play changed how the Chiefs approach short-yardage situations, and that it played a role in their loss on Sunday.
According to data from Warren Sharp of Sharp Analytics cited in the article, short-yardage quarterback sneaks have a league-average conversion rate of 84%, meaning roughly eight of every ten attempts succeed. On third and fourth downs with one to two yards to gain, most teams line the quarterback up under center and plunge forward for a first down or, in some cases, a touchdown.
The author contends that Andy Reid and the Chiefs have not followed this approach. The column traces Reid’s aversion to calling quarterback sneaks to the Denver injury and cites several short-yardage plays over the years, including the Blake Bell play in the 2023 season kickoff game against the Lions, runs out of the shotgun, and occasional rollout passes.
The article also notes that the quarterback does not have to be the one who sneaks the ball. It points to teams such as the Steelers, who use tight end Pat Freiermuth in short-yardage situations rather than Aaron Rodgers, and the Seattle Seahawks, who use tight end AJ Barner in a play they call “The Barnyard.” It suggests the Chiefs could use backup quarterback Justin Fields, tight end Noah Gray, or other players such as Hunter Nourzad or Khyris Tonga.
On the Chiefs’ final drive, the team reached the Broncos’ one-yard line needing a touchdown to win. On second down, Reid called “Tom and Jerry” intended for Xavier Worthy, which was unsuccessful.
On third down, Reid called a run to Kenneth Walker III that was stuffed. The author says a quarterback sneak would likely have been the better option on that play.
Due to a Jaylon Moore false start, the Chiefs were forced to run their fourth-down play from the six-yard line, a passing situation. The article argues that had Moore not flinched, Rashee Rice might have caught a fourth-down pass for a game-winning touchdown.
The column concludes that the Chiefs should sneak the ball on third or fourth down with a yard to gain.
