triple lock, USA News: Support for the state pension triple lock has fallen since Andy Burnham announced that he plans to scrap the mechanism, polling for The i Paper has found. The polling by BMG shows that the proportion of people supporting the lock has dropped below half, although four times as many still support it as oppose it.
At Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, the Prime Minister embarked on a political gamble by announcing plans to end the triple lock in its current form in April 2030 to help pay for free-at-the-point-of-use social care. Under the current triple lock, the state pension rises each year in line with the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent. But the Office for Budget Responsibility has called the policy unsustainable, forecasting it will cost £15.5bn a year by 2030, which is three times its original estimate.
Burnham stated that if Labour wins the next general election, a new adjusted lock will see the state pension rise each year by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent. The state pension would also hold its value relative to earnings over time, meaning it would receive additional uplifts to ensure it does not fall below the proportion of average earnings it has reached by the time of the next election, which is expected to be more than 30 per cent.
Support for Triple Lock Slips
For years, political parties have shied away from touching the lock over fears of being punished by the electorate. However, BMG’s latest polling for The i Paper shows no signs that Burnham is yet suffering a backlash over his decision to call time on the lock. Labour has increased its lead in the polls compared to the previous month, moving to 31 per cent of the vote, while the polling also shows a drop in support for the triple lock.
The share who support the triple lock fell five points compared to last month to 48 per cent, with 26 per cent saying they strongly support it and a further 22 saying they somewhat support it. Twelve per cent said they opposed the lock, down one point, with 8 per cent saying they somewhat oppose it and 4 per cent saying they strongly oppose it. The polling change has been driven by people saying they are now unsure about the policy, with 27 per cent saying neither support nor oppose it, up eight points on September. Thirteen per cent said they don’t know when asked about the lock, down three points on the previous month.
Robert Struthers, head of public perceptions at BMG, said the findings suggested Burnham is making progress in winning people round to his thinking on the lock. He noted that while many people back the triple lock in principle, framing it differently by replacing it and putting savings into social care also garners support.
Political Reactions and Opposition Parties
If support for the lock continues to slide, it could cause opposition parties to change their positions on the issue. Currently, the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats are all committed to continuing the lock, although splits exist within each party. Senior Tories such as Sir Jeremy Hunt and Sir Andrew Mitchell have called for the lock to be reformed, while some Conservative MPs believe Kemi Badenoch has been too quick to recommit to the policy.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has also faced internal criticism from MPs over his decision to stand by the lock. Differences of opinion also exist within Reform UK, where party leader Nigel Farage toyed with coming out against it before being persuaded by Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick to commit to keeping it.
