Democratic Congress Majority and U.S. Tariffs on Mexico, Digi Mart USA News: A new Democratic majority in the U.S. Congress could change how oversight is applied to President Donald Trump’s trade policy, but it will not necessarily mean less protectionism or reduced tariff pressure on Mexico, former Mexican Undersecretary of Foreign Trade Juan Carlos Baker warned.
In an interview with Mario Campos for MVS Noticias, Baker explained that negotiations between Mexico and the United States to reach a partial tariff reduction agreement have yet to produce public results. He said the review of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a separate process that must involve all three countries.
Baker said that, days before the U.S. midterm elections, there were expectations that both governments would announce an agreement to partially reduce existing tariffs.
According to him, the announcement was rumored to come before the vote and could have offered a political benefit to Trump. However, the elections were held without such an understanding being announced.
“That doesn’t mean it will never happen,” Baker said. He considered it possible that talks would resume after the electoral process concluded, although no public information has been released on a date for resuming them.
“I would expect the talks to resume. We don’t know when, it hasn’t been reported when, but hopefully it will be this same year,” he said.
Baker distinguished between immediate tariff negotiations and discussions about the future of the USMCA. He explained that the first process focuses on reducing current trade barriers between Mexico and the United States, while the second requires Canada’s participation.
In his view, resolving tariff differences first would create better conditions for addressing the trilateral trade agenda.
The former undersecretary said efforts so far have concentrated mainly on short-term problems. “We are trying to get past the immediate,” he summarized.
He therefore considered it advisable for Mexico and the United States to reach an understanding during 2026 so that 2027 talks could focus on the future of the trade agreement.
Mario Campos asked the analyst about the implications for Mexico of the new composition of the U.S. Congress, which takes office in January.
Baker explained that, unlike the Mexican system, Congress holds significant constitutional powers over trade in the United States. “Trade authority resides in Congress and is granted to the president,” he said.
This means lawmakers can influence trade decisions through hearings with officials, requests for information, transparency mechanisms and budget decisions. Baker noted that Congress can even condition funding for certain projects on decisions related to tariffs or on the release of information about their implementation.
A Democratic majority could therefore lead to stricter oversight of measures promoted from the White House.
Although Baker acknowledged that the new Congress could change its institutional relationship with the Trump administration, he urged against assuming this will bring a substantial change in U.S. trade policy.
“Don’t expect that just because we now have new actors, in this case Democrats, there will be less protectionism,” he warned.
The former official explained that both U.S. parties have, under different circumstances, backed policies aimed at strengthening domestic production and attracting investment to the United States.
He also said Democrats can take more protectionist positions than Republicans in certain scenarios. “Under certain conditions, Democrats can be even more protectionist than what Republicans have traditionally been,” he said.
For Baker, the main difference may lie in procedures and institutional checks and balances rather than economic objectives. The new Congress could therefore demand greater transparency and oversight of Trump’s tariff decisions, but Mexico should not assume that the change in legislative majority will guarantee more favorable trade conditions.
The analyst concluded that it will be necessary to watch how the congressional trade committees are formed and what priorities their new leaders set in order to assess the impact on the bilateral economic relationship.
