Premier League expected goals versus actual goals 2026/27 season, Digi Mart USA News: Nottingham Forest head coach Oliver Glasner must be wondering what his team have to do to score at the moment.
In Forest’s 2-0 defeat at Brentford on Saturday, they were unable to score from 0.86 Expected Goals (xG), while their opponents were ruthless in their finishing, scoring twice from just 0.46 xG. It was not the first time Glasner’s side has underperformed against its xG this season, but it was far from the only team to do so in Matchweek 9.
In total, 13 teams underperformed against their xG in Matchweek 9. The worst offenders were Manchester City (-1.64), Tottenham Hotspur (-1.47) and Everton (-1.34).
The latter two teams will not mind much, given they won their matches regardless.
But does underperforming or overperforming against your xG actually matter? Expected Goals is a measure of chance quality.
A shot worth 0.1 xG has a 10 per cent chance of going in, so a team with a high xG is creating plenty of high-quality chances. The higher the xG, the likelier a team is to score goals.
The measure is not flawless. Crosses whipped across the six-yard box that do not end in a shot carry no xG value, and own goals also hold no xG value.
But the numbers usually point to what our eyes are telling us.
The theory is that if a team’s xG remains steady, its goals will more or less even out over time. Teams can have spells of overperforming, but these are often followed by spells of underperforming.
Take Forest, for example. Despite scoring six goals from 14.3 xG in the Premier League this season, with their -8.3 being the biggest underperformance in the division, it was not always like this.
Between 22 March and 24 April 2026, Forest scored 13 goals from just 4.83 xG across four league games, the biggest overperformance by any side over a four-game period in the Premier League last season.
Earlier in the 2025/26 season, they had been in a similar slump. In a four-game spell between 27 September and 26 October 2025, Forest did not score a goal despite recording an xG of 4.48.
So how are the other 19 Premier League teams doing this season compared with their xG? Two teams stand out in terms of overperformance: Brighton & Hove Albion and Chelsea.
Brighton, flying high in third place, have scored 24 goals, four more than any other team. They boast the second-highest xG too, but their 24 goals from 17.2 xG is the largest overperformance in the division (+6.8).
Chelsea have scored 19 goals from 13.3 xG, an overperformance of 5.7. They are helped by four players who have overperformed their individual xG by more than 1.0: Morgan Rogers (+2.2), Joao Pedro (+2.0), Jordan Henderson (+1.5) and Pedro Neto (+1.2).
No other team has overperformed its xG by more than 2.0, with Brentford third-highest on 16 goals from 14.04 xG. The only other teams in the black for xG are Hull City and Ipswich Town (both 1.9), Manchester City (1.7), Newcastle United (1.6) and Coventry (0.7).
Eight teams are overperforming against their xG, and 12 are underperforming.
Premier League champions and current leaders Arsenal have won eight of their nine league games but have underperformed their xG by 0.9, scoring 14 goals from 14.9 xG. Their formidable defence, with five goals conceded and just 7.2 expected goals against, has helped ensure that missed chances in attack have not been costly.
Aston Villa are also slightly underperforming (-0.9), but Nicolas Jackson deserves credit that it is not by more. The striker, who signed from Chelsea, has overperformed his xG by more than any other player in the Premier League this season, by +2.7, scoring five goals from 2.3 xG.
Forest have been the biggest underperformers after nine games, but not far behind are Sunderland on -6.2 (seven goals from 13.2 xG), Fulham on -4.5 (nine goals from 13.5 xG) and Manchester United on -4.0 (10 goals from 14.0 xG). Fulham’s underperformance has been influenced by Spanish forward Gonzalo Garcia, who has the biggest underperformance by a Premier League player at -3.0, scoring just one goal from 4.0 xG, although he is clearly getting into good positions, a positive for the Cottagers.
Underperforming on xG does not mean underperforming overall, as Everton demonstrate. David Moyes’s side has underperformed its xG by 3.4, scoring nine goals from 12.4 xG, but after its win at Newcastle on Monday, it sits seventh in the table.
That can be partly explained by one player: Thierno Barry. The Everton striker has four league goals this season, including the winner at St James’ Park on Monday, from an xG of 6.4, so he has underperformed by 2.4, second only to Fulham’s Garcia.
However, two of Barry’s goals have been winners, so he is still earning his team points.
As the Forest statistics suggest, these things often work in cycles. Just because a team is not putting its chances away now does not mean it is bad at finishing.
It is simply going through a lean period that should eventually even out. The same often applies to overperformance, which is ultimately an example of form, and form can be temporary.
Consider Villa last season. By 25 January 2026, Villa had scored 13 goals from outside the penalty area after 23 Premier League games, the most of any side in the competition and their most as a club in the top flight since 2007/08 (16).
They were overperforming their xG by scoring so many low-xG chances from long range.
Somewhat inevitably, it evened out. Villa scored just two more goals from outside the box in their remaining 15 games.
Comparing Villa’s four-game rolling average for goals versus xG across last season shows extended periods of both over- and underperformance. After a 2-1 win at Tottenham on 19 October 2025, Villa’s four-game rolling average was a 4.62 xG overperformance.
Fewer than four months later, after a 1-0 home defeat to Brentford, it was down at -4.78.
Villa finished the season in fourth place, which shows a team does not have to consistently overperform its xG to have a very good season. It would be too simplistic to say things “even themselves out” with Expected Goals, but the figures certainly fluctuate.
Just because a team is underperforming or overperforming now does not mean that will continue, or that it will define their season. That will be positive news for Forest fans.
