Mexico remittances forecast 2026 2027 BBVA, Digi Mart USA News: Remittances sent to Mexico could reach $64.1 billion by the close of 2026, an annual increase of 2.6%, and rise to $66.7 billion in 2027, a 4.1% gain and a new all-time high, according to the Migration and Remittances Yearbook Mexico 2026, prepared by BBVA Mexico, the National Population Council (Conapo) and the BBVA Mexico Foundation.
The estimates come amid a tightening of U.S. migration policy, which has changed mobility flows between the two countries and increased restrictions on undocumented migrants.
The document states that since February 2025, the U.S.-Mexico border has been practically closed to irregular migrants, according to U.S. Border Patrol apprehension figures.
One of the main changes identified in the yearbook is the increase in Mexicans returning to the country after living in the United States. During 2025, the quarterly average of people returning to Mexico exceeded 60,000, compared with about 40,000 recorded between 2022 and 2024.
The trend continued in the first half of 2026, when returns reached roughly 90,000 people per quarter.
At the same time, Border Patrol apprehensions of irregular migrants on the southwest U.S. border fell considerably.
They dropped from nearly 250,000 in December 2023 to fewer than 10,000 per month on average during 2025 and 2026.
Tighter controls were also reflected in the operations of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Between 2020 and 2024, the agency recorded an average of 6,000 migrant arrests per month; between January 2025 and March 2026, that figure rose to 27,000 per month. In that latter period, ICE arrests accounted for 84% of new admissions to detention centers.
In addition, during fiscal year 2025 the agency carried out 320,000 deportations, the highest level since 2014.
The yearbook also documents a reduction in temporary entry mechanisms to the United States. Between January 2022 and January 2025, the country admitted 1.2 million migrants through notices to appear (NTA), 241,000 through the U4U program and 531,000 through the CHNV program.
However, between February 2025 and January 2026, NTA admissions fell to fewer than 4,000, while the U4U and CHNV programs recorded no new entries.
Another notable change is the shifting profile of those attempting to migrate to the United States. According to the yearbook, the share of adults traveling alone increased and the share of family units decreased.
The presence of South American migrants declined, while the share of Mexicans rose from 36.9% to 71.6% between the first quarter of 2024 and the same period in 2026.
Approvals of U.S. immigration applications also declined.
Approved naturalization applications fell from 88,500 in April 2025 to 32,900 in January 2026, while permanent residence approvals dropped from 71,300 in July 2025 to 34,000 in January 2026. The asylum approval rate fell from 28.5% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2025.
Between February 2025 and January 2026, the United States received 2,157 refugees, a 98% decrease from the same period a year earlier.
Despite migration restrictions, Mexico remained in 2025 the second-largest recipient of remittances in the world, behind only India. That year the country received $62.472 billion in remittances, an annual decline of 3.9%, with an average transfer of $394.
The amount exceeded combined foreign direct investment and crude oil export revenues of $55.69 billion, and was also above international tourism income of $31.715 billion.
Remittances represented 3.4% of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, although their economic importance was greater in some states. Guerrero and Chiapas led in dependence on these funds, equivalent to 13.9% and 13.9%* of their respective state GDPs; hmm
