U.S. midterm elections and Congress control, Digi Mart USA News: The United States holds legislative elections this Tuesday that could alter the political balance in Washington and shape the last two years of the government of President Donald Trump, with direct repercussions for Mexico and particularly for export-oriented states such as Jalisco.
Americans will renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and contest 35 Senate seats, in addition to electing governors and local officials.
Polls show a national lead for the Democratic Party. A Reuters/Ipsos survey recorded 47% support for Democrats versus 35% for Republicans among registered voters.
However, that gap does not guarantee control of both chambers, given the territorial distribution of seats and close contests in several states.
On security and the fight against drug trafficking, a Democratic majority could push for stricter oversight of U.S. operations against criminal organizations, especially those involving military action outside U.S.
territory. It could also encourage broader discussion of bilateral cooperation on arms trafficking, intelligence and the fight against fentanyl, though this would not necessarily mean reduced pressure on Mexico.
On immigration, a legislative shift would open room to question mass deportations, detention conditions and the budgets of immigration agencies. Nevertheless, the White House would retain powers to maintain border controls and carry out much of its immigration policy.
On trade, one of the most important issues would be the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which faces its first six-year review this year. A Congress with a stronger Democratic presence could increase scrutiny of tariffs and demand greater attention to labor conditions, rules of origin and compliance with trade commitments.
For Jalisco, where exports of electronic, technological, agri-food and manufactured products maintain close ties to the U.S. market, any change in trade rules could affect investment, employment and supply chains.
If Republicans retain both chambers, Trump would maintain a more favorable legislative environment to advance his agenda, although internal party differences and legal limits would continue to shape some decisions.
First results are expected to begin emerging tonight, but determining control of Congress could take longer due to narrow margins in several districts and states.
Beyond the electoral outcome, Mexico will enter a new phase of negotiations with Washington, in which border security, the fight against drug trafficking, migration and the stability of North American trade will remain central issues in the bilateral relationship.
