US midterm elections, USA News: America goes to the polls on Tuesday in an election which looks set to transform the makeup of US government and set the stage for Donald Trump’s final two years in office. But the US is not the only country which will be reshaped by the midterm elections. Ukraine’s fate may be partly in the hands of American voters, with the election results likely to play a significant role in determining the US’s approach to the Russian invasion. Current polling suggests the Republicans are likely to be badly punished by voters over the soaring cost of living for US voters, largely as a result of Trump’s war with Iran. The data modelling site Race to the White House gives the Democrats a 94 per cent chance of taking the House of Representatives and a 76 per cent chance of winning the Senate. If control of the US government slips through Trump’s fingers, he may seek out a political win by forcing a peace deal in Ukraine – at any cost.
The Future of Ukraine and Trump’s Stance
Dr Patrick Gill-Tiney, a security studies lecturer at King’s College London, said that Trump looks set to become a “lame-duck president”, but “retains substantial influence over foreign policy, which may encourage him to focus more on that area”. With Trump’s growing collaboration with Moscow, willingness to entertain the Kremlin’s maximalist demands for peace and recent hostility to Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky, “that would almost certainly be bad for Ukraine”, Dr Gill-Tiney said. A senior Ukrainian source told The i Paper that a bad election result “could make Trump more impatient” and that “a Ukraine deal is among very few wins he can deliver on his own.” “The problem is Putin won’t give him a real compromise, so the pressure lands on our side,” they said. “I’d say the next couple of months through to the G20 in December are the most dangerous for us.”
However, Professor Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics at University College Dublin, said a damaging midterms result for Trump could benefit Ukraine. He suggested that many Republicans were “angered” by the President’s U-turn over sanctions on Russia, where the US Government had backed a bipartisan bill to increase sanctions on Russia, before Trump instead brokered a deal to buy fuel from Moscow. “If the Trumpists suffer a heavy defeat, it’s significant for Ukraine,” Professor Lucas said. “After the elections, I think the pressure is on for Trump to fulfil the sanctions… and to pull back and reverse what he’s done that undercuts the sanctions, including that purchase of Russian diesel fuel.”
Air Defence and Global Interceptor Shortages
In positive news for Zelensky, the US confirmed on Saturday morning that it would sell 500 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, which are essential for defending cities from Russian attacks. Natia Seskuria, a senior fellow in Russia and Eurasia studies at defence thinktank RUSI said that Ukraine’s “most pressing need this winter is air defence, particularly the interceptors required to counter Russian ballistic missile attacks.” But there’s a catch; the systems will take several years to produce and they will be entirely funded by Europe and Canada, not by America. There is currently a global shortage of interceptor missiles after countries burnt through their stockpiles during US and Israel’s war with Iran, so the announcement will not provide any immediate respite for Ukraine.
