Burnham poll bounce, USA News (London, United Kingdom): Labour’s political momentum under Andy Burnham shows continued strength, with exclusive polling indicating the party extending its lead over Reform UK and the Conservatives following a heavily criticized initial Budget. The survey, conducted by BMG Research following the fiscal event delivered by Chancellor John Healey, places Labour on 31 percent, putting them nine points ahead of Reform at 22 percent and ten points clear of Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party.
The three-point increase on the previous month continues an upward trajectory for Labour since Burnham assumed leadership in July, when the party stood at 23 percent and trailed Reform at 27 percent. This marks the highest polling figure recorded since August 2024, following the General Election, and contrasts with nearly a year of trailing behind Reform under Sir Keir Starmer.
For Reform UK and Nigel Farage, the figures reflect a continued decline from their high-water mark of 35 percent in August 2025, recording their lowest vote share since October 2024. Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party maintained a gradual recovery, securing its highest vote share since March 2025. Badenoch also led leadership favorability ratings with a plus-six score, up four points, while Burnham remained in positive territory at plus-three. Farage registered at minus-20.
The polling results arrive amid ongoing Westminster discussions regarding whether the Prime Minister might contemplate calling an early election, though most observers currently view May 2028 as the most likely timeline. While Burnham has maintained that he will not call a snap election, Robert Struthers, head of public perceptions at BMG, noted that the figures would add to calls within Labour for an earlier ballot.
The survey revealed that Wednesday’s Budget was the most popular fiscal event tracked by BMG since 2022. Thirty-three percent of respondents viewed Healey’s announcements positively, compared to 28 percent with negative views. Furthermore, 26 percent believed the Budget would improve their household finances, outstripping the 23 percent who felt they would be worse off, though 47 percent anticipated no real difference.
Among individual measures, Healey’s extension of the VAT cut on electricity bills to July 2027 received 77 percent support. A new tax allowance for low-income pensioners garnered 71 percent backing, and a £100 energy bill payment for households in council tax bands A to D was supported by 69 percent of respondents.
However, the polling underscored potential vulnerabilities regarding welfare spending. Two in five respondents, or 38 percent, stated that out-of-work benefits are too high, exceeding the 15 percent who view them as too low and the 29 percent who consider them appropriate. Chancellor John Healey faced scrutiny after initially indicating the welfare bill would be reduced during this Parliament before the Treasury clarified there was no set timetable, with Burnham stating he aims to reduce welfare by helping people return to work.
Struthers noted that public backing for the Budget primarily reflected broader positive sentiment toward Burnham’s premiership rather than detailed analysis of the fiscal measures. BMG surveyed 1,529 adults across Great Britain on October 28 and 29.
