Democratic midterm win and Trump trade pressure on Mexico, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico City): Even if Democrats win control of one or both chambers of the U.S. Congress, Mexico would not gain relief from Washington, according to analysis centers cited by Dossier Político.
The Laboratorio de Análisis en Comercio, Economía y Negocios (LACEN) of the UNAM said that a Democratic gain would not mean Donald Trump loses the tools he has used to pressure trading partners commercially.
LACEN’s analysis states that, rather than moderating his economic policy, Trump could strengthen his economic nationalism and commercial patriotism in 2027. The document says he would defend U.S.
commercial security, domestic supply in strategic production chains and national security. LACEN also expects that if Democratic lawmakers try to block his policies, Trump could use various forms of presidential veto.
Integralia also said a Democratic victory would not necessarily produce a better scenario for Mexico. According to the firm, the more obstacles Trump faces domestically, the greater his interest could be in focusing on foreign policy.
A Democratic majority could increase investigations and oversight of the executive branch, intensifying internal political confrontation.
In that scenario, Mexico could return to the center of U.S. demands.
Combating drug trafficking and organized crime, which has broader bipartisan support than other international issues, could gain prominence and lead to new demands on Mexico. Republican losses in states affected by tariffs could also increase pressure to moderate some trade measures.
The USMCA will remain in place, but uncertainty over its terms is expected to continue, according to Integralia. In July, the United States refused to extend the agreement for another 16 years, opening a period of annual reviews.
Disagreements persist over rules of origin, inputs from outside the region and China’s participation in supply chains, and negotiations will follow their own course regardless of the election results.
Rules of origin determine what percentage of a product must be manufactured within North America to receive treaty benefits. The article also cites the use of inputs from non-regional countries and China’s role in supply chains as unresolved issues.
According to LACEN, Trump has several legal instruments he could use to protect U.S. industry and restrict imports even if Democrats control Congress.
These include the Buy American Act, enacted in 1933, which favors purchases of U.S.-made products in certain federal government procurements, and the National Security Act of 1947, which the article notes does not by itself grant a general power to impose tariffs.
Another relevant provision cited is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, which allows the president to adjust imports of certain products when an investigation determines that their entry threatens U.S. national security.
