BBVA projects 4.1% rise in remittances to Mexico after Democratic midterm wins, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico): The Democratic Party’s victory in the U.S. midterm elections, which gave it majorities in both chambers of Congress and wins in Texas, will create a more favorable economic and social environment for families receiving money in Mexico, according to BBVA México.
BBVA México expects this new political configuration to boost remittance flows by up to 4.1%, above its 2.6% estimate for the close of 2026. The projection was presented alongside the 2026 Migration and Remittances Yearbook, prepared with the National Population Council (Conapo).
Carlos Serrano, chief economist of BBVA México, said legislative control in Washington would reduce pressure on Mexican workers in the United States. The bank noted that federal budgets require congressional approval, so it anticipates lower funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which would give Mexican nationals more confidence to go to their workplaces.
Gabriela Rodríguez, secretary general of Conapo, said a Democratic presence in the legislature would help reduce human rights violations against migrants. The analysis also contemplates the probable elimination of the 1% tax on remittances applied under previous administrations, and rules out increases in transfer fees.
BBVA’s projections rest on three key elements. First, 99% of remittances are sent electronically, with average amounts between $150 and $400, a mechanism backed by U.S.
Treasury authorities. Second, the bank expects the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to remain in force, since any substantive change would require ratification by the U.S.
Legislature.
Third, the political transition in Texas could speed freight crossings and cross-border trade, reducing waiting times at the main commercial crossing point between the two nations. The forecast links the possible rise in remittances to migration policy, U.S.
economic performance and the exchange rate.
The material does not specify dates for the possible elimination of the 1% tax, nor does it detail specific changes to transfer fees. The information indicates these measures are contemplated within the scenario projected by the financial institution.
