Banxico GDP growth forecast Mexico 2026, Digi Mart USA News: Private-sector specialists consulted by the Banco de Mexico raised their economic growth forecast to 1.61% for 2026 and 1.86% for 2027, following a survey conducted between October 19 and 29 within Mexico.
The upward adjustment for gross domestic product in 2026 represents the fourth consecutive increase since the 1.07% projected in June. The forecast for this year is now at its highest level recorded since March and exceeds the federal government’s official estimate of 1.5%.
For the next period, the estimate stands at 1.86%, a positive correction from the previous 1.77%, according to data published by the Banco de Mexico.
Despite improvements in production indicators, 39% of the 42 specialists surveyed by the central bank said current conditions are unfavorable for investment, while 13% considered the opposite and the remainder remained uncertain. Regarding the business climate for the next six months, 46% of respondents expected it to remain unchanged, an equal share anticipated improvement, and 8% forecast deterioration.
The consulted specialists identified public insecurity, trade policy and the absence of structural reforms as the main obstacles to national economic development. These factors, they said, condition the pace of expansion and temper the optimism generated by recent improvements in short-term macroeconomic figures.
On prices, the annual inflation forecast was adjusted to 3.83% for this year, the lowest estimate of the year so far and since November 2025, while the 2027 forecast remained unchanged. For a 12-month horizon, the National Consumer Price Index is expected to average 3.85%, marking two months of moderation.
Over five- and eight-year horizons, inflation is projected to average 3.77%, indicating analysts do not expect the central bank’s 3% target to be met even by 2034.
