Banque de France Expects Moderate French GDP Growth in Fourth Quarter Amid Uncertainty

France Q4 GDP growth outlook Banque de France, Digi Mart USA News (Paris, France): The Banque de France said Monday that French gross domestic product is expected to grow moderately in the fourth quarter, though it did not provide a numerical estimate. The central bank described the situation as highly uncertain and said visibility remains limited regarding the impact of social movements.

The bank also lowered its third-quarter GDP forecast, now projecting a contraction of 0.1%, compared with its earlier estimate of 0.1% growth made in early October. The revision follows recent figures from the national statistics agency Insee, which surprised most forecasters.

According to the bank’s monthly business survey, conducted among a sample of 8,500 company leaders between October 28 and November 4, activity rose in October in manufacturing and market services and changed little in construction. The data were collected before global stock markets fell, particularly shares linked to artificial intelligence, following the decisive Democratic victory in the U.S.

midterm elections.

The bank’s uncertainty indicator remained stable from September to October in manufacturing and services but rose noticeably in construction. Among the main concerns cited by business leaders were higher fuel prices, as well as political and budget worries, after the 2027 draft budget was firmly rejected by the National Assembly last week.

Yannick Kalantzis, deputy director general of statistics at the Banque de France, said at a press briefing that this climate reflects increased caution among clients, including households, other companies and public purchasers. He said it has resulted in postponed projects and reduced visibility on activity in the coming months.

In November, industrial activity is expected to be supported by aeronautics, computer, electronic and optical equipment, and electrical equipment production. By contrast, the bank anticipates declines in automotive repair and accommodation.

In accommodation, reports of hotel room cancellations in city centers for November have been linked to social movements.