Mexico US relations after Democratic midterm win, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico): The Democratic Party’s victory in the U.S. midterm elections will not bring a substantial change in foreign policy toward Mexico, according to historian and academic Lorenzo Meyer.
Donald Trump will retain control of the executive branch and with it much of the decision-making on migration, drug trafficking and regional security.
In an interview with Julio Astillero on Astillero Informa, Meyer acknowledged that the results of the November 3 elections, in which Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, represent an important counterweight to the U.S. president, though he warned that their effects on the bilateral relationship will be limited.
“I would say we will face more or less the same thing with a different label, because executive power remains in Trump’s hands,” he said.
Meyer explained that in the U.S. presidential system, foreign policy decisions depend largely on the White House, although Congress has powers that allow it to set limits on certain government actions.
“In a presidential system, and a very presidential one like the American, the formulation of foreign policy […] the main force remains Trump,” he said.
The historian argued that the new composition of Congress could restore the institutional balance that, in his view, had weakened under Republican dominance.
“Congress is going to become a power again because it stopped being one […] there was a single will, that of Trump,” he said.
However, he warned that this change will not necessarily alter the U.S. government’s priorities regarding Mexico, especially on issues Washington considers linked to its national security.
“I suppose we will not get to that [a war], but we also will not reach a fundamental review of the nature of the relationship with Mexico,” he said, referring to the aggressive rhetoric of the U.S. president.
Meyer recalled that Trump has repeatedly accused the Mexican government of being subordinate to organized crime groups, statements he considered particularly serious, though he said they have so far been predominantly rhetorical.
He also said migration and drug trafficking will continue to occupy a central place in bilateral tensions, without U.S. authorities sufficiently acknowledging the historical contribution of Mexican labor to their economy or domestic demand for illicit drugs.
“I don’t think that from the perspective of whoever formulates foreign policy, which is the White House, the view on these two major issues changes much,” he said.
Finally, the academic believed that the political changes in the United States could produce favorable effects in the long term, but warned that Mexico should not expect an immediate reduction in U.S. pressure.
“We cannot expect the president to suddenly feel that, poof, the worst of the North American pressure is over. This is going to be a long haul,” he concluded.
