Larry Rubin Expects USMCA Deal This Year Despite U.S. Midterm Elections, Digi Mart USA News: U.S. midterm elections could shift President Donald Trump’s political balance, but not necessarily the direction of the trade relationship with Mexico, according to Larry Rubin, president of the American Society of Mexico.
He said negotiations over the USMCA could conclude before the end of 2026.
Speaking on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, Rubin argued that the trade agreement is too important for the three North American economies to be stopped by a change in the composition of the U.S. Congress.
“I calculate that the USMCA will be accepted by the three nations this same year, regardless of whether or not President Trump wins the majority in Congress,” he said.
Rubin acknowledged that significant issues remain, particularly bringing Canada into the substantive phase of talks that Mexico and the United States have conducted bilaterally in recent months. “Our central concern lies in Canada sitting at the negotiating table that Mexico and the United States have already successfully held,” he explained.
One objective of the American Society is to secure reductions in U.S. tariffs affecting Mexican products, especially in the automotive industry.
Rubin noted that more than 80% of Mexico’s trade with the United States takes place without tariffs, but said remaining sectoral restrictions pose a competitiveness problem for Mexico.
“At the American Society we will continue to push so that, for example, under Section 232, those tariffs are reduced, especially in the automotive sector, because today Mexico’s auto industry is less competitive than those of Japan, South Korea and England,” he said.
Rubin said he expects talks in Washington to yield tariff reductions between late November and early December. Section 232 of U.S.
trade law allows restrictions on imports for national security reasons, and its application has generated trade tensions in sectors such as automobiles, steel and aluminum.
Rubin’s expectation partially coincides with the position of the Mexican government. On October 28, President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged that talks continue, although no agreement yet exists on sectoral tariffs.
“We want a significant reduction in the so-called ‘232’ tariffs, which cover automobiles, steel and aluminum,” she said at the time.
Although Rubin expressed confidence in reaching an understanding during 2026, the trade process still faces obstacles. On July 1, the United States declined to extend the USMCA in its current form.
However, the agreement remains in force, and the three countries must continue their reviews until reaching consensus or reaching the end of its current term in 2036. Washington has also opened public consultations for the 2027 review, meaning an early trade understanding before December would not necessarily equal a formal extension of the treaty.
Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard said on October 20 that he intends to conclude this year’s review and obtain better tariff conditions for Mexico.
On possible election results, Rubin said a Republican defeat in either chamber of Congress could make it harder to pass budgets and appointments pushed by Trump. However, he ruled out that a new Democratic majority would necessarily bring a deep change in the bilateral relationship, noting that foreign policy is conducted mainly by the U.S.
president. “Really, the effects will be minor,” he said.
On migration, Rubin said the new Congress should pursue comprehensive reform to address the structural causes of irregular migration rather than focusing solely on executive administrative measures. He also anticipated that the fight against drug trafficking will remain a Washington priority regardless of the legislative makeup, given U.S.
concern over fentanyl and other drug use. In that context, he reiterated the American Society’s proposal for a bilateral anti-crime treaty that would require approval from both countries’ congresses.
Rubin also questioned the recurring use of the concepts of sovereignty and interference in Mexican political discourse about the United States. In his view, both governments should favor a narrative of cooperation reflecting the family, commercial and social ties between their citizens.
“This issue of sovereignty and interference should be avoided because first, it is not reality, and second, it does not necessarily strengthen the Mexico-United States relationship,” he said.
His position contrasts with that of President Sheinbaum, who has defended bilateral cooperation without ceding national sovereignty. Rubin added that the election results could cause short-term economic fluctuations, but insisted the decisive factor for Mexico will be reaching trade agreements that preserve its advantages in the U.S.
market.
