Mexico 2026 GDP growth forecast raised by private analysts, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico City): Private-sector specialists raised their median forecast for Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 from 1.4% to 1.5%, according to a survey published Tuesday by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
The forecast for 2027 also rose, from 1.8% to 1.83%. The survey gathered responses from forty national and foreign economic analysis and consulting groups between October 19 and October 29.
On average, specialists raised their growth expectations from 1.4% to 1.61% for 2026 and from 1.77% to 1.86% for 2027.
The projections follow a report from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) that the Mexican economy grew 3.2% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026, after growing 2.1% year over year from April to June.
Analysts also slightly raised the median of their overall inflation expectations for the close of 2026, from 3.87% to 3.88%, while the average fell from 3.85% to 3.83%. The forecast comes after overall inflation stood at 3.62% annually in the first half of October.
For 2027, the median inflation estimate rose from 3.82% to 3.85%, still above the central bank’s 3% target.
Specialists cited governance problems (38% of responses), external conditions (33%) and domestic economic conditions (23%) as the main factors that could hinder growth over the next six months. Foreign trade policy and public insecurity were each cited by 15% of respondents, followed by the absence of structural change in Mexico (11%), international political instability (8%), and other issues related to the lack of rule of law (8%).
Uncertainty about the domestic economic situation was mentioned by 7%.
Analysts revised their exchange rate forecasts upward, estimating the Mexican peso will close 2026 at 18.39 per dollar, compared with 17.50 in the previous survey, according to the median. For 2027, they calculated a rate of 18.64 pesos per dollar, above the 18.04 estimated in September.
On the external sector, expectations for the 2026 trade balance shifted from a deficit of $6 billion to a surplus of $4.125 billion, according to the median estimate. The forecast for foreign direct investment (FDI) remained at $41 billion for 2026, although the average of forecasts fell from $41.109 billion to $40.452 billion.
