NVIDIA stock Democratic Congress win AI chip investors, Digi Mart USA News: Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, and investors quickly sorted AI stocks into winners and losers. NVIDIA (NVDA) landed in the losers pile.
The chipmaker fell 3.2% on Wednesday while Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) rallied. It then sank another 9.3% on Thursday as money kept rotating out of chip stocks.
Friday’s bounce only lifted it back to $187, after NVIDIA had already dropped 11% in a month.
Stratechery’s Ben Thompson wrote in his post-election piece, AI on the Ballot, that “Nvidia will almost certainly be a short-term loser.” Fewer data centers mean fewer NVIDIA chips, he argued. Weaker neoclouds also hurt NVIDIA twice, since they run almost entirely on its full-rack systems and NVIDIA is backstopping many of them.
Yorkville Ives’ Dan Ives put a number on the slowdown. Of the 800 to 1,000 data centers planned across the U.S., he estimates that “10% of datacenters will not happen now.”
Analysts have not yet cut their numbers. As of Oct. 27, they expected revenue to nearly double to $412 billion this fiscal year and reach $903 billion by fiscal 2029.
U.S.-headquartered customers supplied 69.3% of NVIDIA’s revenue. Ives suggests cuts would most likely come in fiscal 2028 and 2029, when today’s planned projects would open.
Investors are not waiting for revisions. NVIDIA’s forward P/E fell to 15x on Nov. 5, the low of the past year and well below its 23x average.
Thompson’s flip side is that hyperscalers could win. As new data centers become harder to build, capacity already running becomes scarcer, and the companies that own it can charge more for it.
Microsoft’s capital spending nearly quintupled in four years, to $116 billion in fiscal 2026. Ives said a slower pace means “less Capex worries which helps Big Tech stocks.”
Thompson’s piece also holds a long-term bull case. Once power becomes the constraint, “an advantage in tokens/megawatt is worth a lot of money.” A customer that cannot build a new data center can rebuild an old one with new NVIDIA chips.
Management estimates about $18 billion of revenue per gigawatt with Hopper, $25 billion with Grace Blackwell and $40 billion with Vera Rubin. Management also calls its outlook of about 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028 supply-limited.
Thompson flags the risk on the other side as well: hyperscalers, with the scale and cash to build their own chips, are NVIDIA’s biggest long-term threat. NVIDIA probably faces a bumpier few quarters, and its neocloud customers are its biggest exposure.
The first real read comes Nov. 17, when NVIDIA reports its third quarter and guides for the January quarter.
