Trump security agenda with Mexico after midterm elections, Digi Mart USA News: An opinion column published by BI Noticias examines whether the results of the November 3 elections will change the security agenda between the United States and Mexico. The author notes that Democrats will control both chambers of Congress starting in January 2027, meaning President Donald Trump will face greater institutional checks during the final two years of his term.
The author argues that the answer is not simple. A president with less room to maneuver in Washington might moderate his demands, but he could also choose to intensify them.
The column proposes three possible scenarios.
The first scenario holds that a president facing domestic obstacles may seek visible results in foreign policy, potentially increasing pressure on Mexico for more arrests, intelligence sharing or joint operations. According to the column, The New York Times reported on October 24 that Washington sought a visible result against cartels before the elections.
President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged that the United States had requested joint operations but said Mexico had rejected them because they would involve American forces operating on national territory.
The second scenario is greater institutional restraint. Beginning in January, the new Congress will have more opportunities to investigate presidential decisions, oversee operations and condition resources, which could curb Trump’s interventionist impulses on security.
The column cautions, however, that Congress cannot automatically block all executive decisions, since the executive branch retains significant foreign policy powers. The author also suggests Trump might attempt to act on certain decisions during November and December, before new restrictions take effect.
The third scenario involves a tighter link between security and economics. The column notes that Trump has previously used tariff threats to demand action against drug trafficking and migration.
Although the U.S. Supreme Court restricted one legal avenue Trump had used to impose tariffs in February, he retains other trade powers.
Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said on November 4 that the Democratic victory does not change those presidential authorities.
The column also addresses the USMCA trade agreement. According to the author, the treaty was reviewed in July, and the United States decided not to extend its term by another 16 years.
The agreement remains in force, negotiations continue, and a new review is scheduled for 2027. The author suggests Trump could try to tie trade concessions to new security demands.
The author concludes that these scenarios may coexist and that a key distinction is between criticizing Trump’s methods and abandoning the fight against cartels, an objective where Democrats and Republicans may agree. Democratic lawmakers have opposed unilateral military intervention in Mexico while maintaining support for bilateral cooperation against drug trafficking.
The column states that the coming months will show what new demands the United States presents, what limits Congress establishes and what commitments Mexico accepts.
The column notes that its views belong solely to its author and that BI Noticias publishes them in support of freedom of expression.
