Mexico 2026 GDP growth forecast raised by private analysts, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico): Private-sector specialists raised their median forecast for Mexico’s gross domestic product growth in 2026 from 1.4% to 1.5%, according to a survey published by Banco de Mexico (Banxico). The median forecast for 2027 also rose, from 1.8% to 1.83%.
The survey gathered responses from forty national and foreign economic analysis and consulting firms between October 19 and October 29. On average, forecasts rose from 1.4% to 1.61% for 2026 and from 1.77% to 1.86% for 2027.
The projections follow data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), which reported that Mexico’s economy grew 3.2% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026, after growing 2.1% year over year from April to June.
Analysts also slightly raised their median expectation for year-end 2026 headline inflation, from 3.87% to 3.88%, while the average fell from 3.85% to 3.83%. Headline inflation stood at 3.62% annually in the first half of October.
For 2027, the median inflation estimate rose from 3.82% to 3.85%, still above the central bank’s 3% target.
Asked about factors that could hinder economic growth over the next six months, respondents cited governance problems (38% of responses), external conditions (33%) and domestic economic conditions (23%). Specifically, they highlighted foreign trade policy and public insecurity, each at 15%, followed by the absence of structural changes in Mexico (11%), international political instability (8%) and other issues related to the rule of law (8%).
Seven percent mentioned uncertainty about the domestic economic situation.
Analysts revised their exchange rate forecasts upward, estimating that the Mexican peso will close 2026 at 18.39 per U.S. dollar, compared with 17.50 in the previous survey.
For 2027, they projected 18.64 pesos per dollar, up from 18.04 in September.
On the external sector, the median expectation for the trade balance in 2026 shifted from a deficit of $6 billion to a surplus of $4.125 billion. The forecast for foreign direct investment remained at $41 billion for 2026, although the average of forecasts fell from $41.109 billion to $40.452 billion.
