Israel election result, USA News (London): On one of Benjamin Netanyahu’s election posters, he stands shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump under the Israeli flag, with what appear to be two F-35s overhead. The message is that the partnership that bombed Iran is on the ballot. Now that Israel’s general election is over, and after Americans vote in next week’s midterms, expect the war with Iran to resume, full throttle. It suits both men to start bombing again. Netanyahu is clinging on in a caretaker government while tortuous coalition negotiations get under way. His critics – and this election was, above all, a referendum on his premiership – say he is more than capable of inviting Iranian missiles to fall on Israel again to maintain his grip on power.
Meanwhile, Trump is desperate to force Iran back into talks and finish the war on something less than humiliating terms. The Wall Street Journal reports that US officials have privately warned several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a “short, intense military campaign” after the midterms. The Journal also says the US is sending another Patriot missile defence system to Israel and has moved American troops off Middle East bases where they might be at risk. “We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump told an election rally last week, using the US military’s name for the operation to bomb Iran. “Or they’ll agree,” he said, referring to what he hopes will be Iranian capitulation at the negotiating table.
While Trump may not yet have made up his mind fully about resuming the attack, Netanyahu has consistently pushed for more bombing. It’s what his supporters want. At his Likud party headquarters, campaign videos ran on repeat with images from the wars Netanyahu has prosecuted. A camera in the nose of a warplane showed buildings being turned to billowing clouds of dust under Israeli bombs. The Prime Minister’s face appeared next to his campaign slogan: “Netanyahu does not surrender.” Netanyahu would probably carry the country with him if he embarked on a new round of warfare. There is no Israeli peace party with a large constituency of support. On security policy, Netanyahu has remade the political opposition in his own image, with leaders accepting his worldview and running to his right.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition is sustained in power with the votes of far-right parties. During the campaign, figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir called for the displacement of Gaza populations. At the same time, Netanyahu acknowledged potential future risks for Israel in his security-first policy. In a Channel 10 TV interview, he advised Israelis to prepare for the day when the United States might cut off military aid, adding that Israel should prepare for international sanctions on its banks and consider bypass economies using cryptocurrencies.
For the next two years, however, Israel and Netanyahu have an ally in the White House. Following initial hesitation, Trump endorsed Netanyahu on October 18, calling him a great partner for peace. Following strong early election results, Trump took credit on social media, writing that the tide turned after his endorsement. Meanwhile, regional actors are adjusting their strategies. Oman’s Foreign Minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, proposed a non-aggression pact binding Gulf states, Iran, and Iraq without relying on external powers. Simultaneously, Qatari mediators handed Iran a fresh draft agreement to avert renewed conflict before the U.S. midterms. In his speech, Netanyahu emphasized that the war with Iran is only on pause, asserting that the threat must be eliminated once and for all.
