El Niño intensification in Mexico and UNAM emergency preparedness recommendations, Digi Mart USA News (Mexico): The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) has recommended preparing an emergency backpack and following six other prevention measures as El Niño strengthens and could reach historic intensity, according to forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
UNAM researcher Guillermo N. Murray Tortarolo said the warming of the Pacific Ocean is showing signs of an extraordinary phenomenon.
“When a strong El Niño arrives, harvests are lost, fishery catches decline, electricity production is cut, forests catch fire and floods destroy homes, roads and bridges,” he explained.
Murray Tortarolo, of UNAM’s Institute of Ecosystems and Sustainability Research, noted that El Niño’s effects will not be the same in all regions, but the population can begin preparing with seven preventive measures.
He warned that record temperatures could be recorded in various cities across the country between April and May 2027, accompanied by a higher risk of forest fires. He also recalled that the 1997-1998 El Niño episode caused serious consequences in the country.
During 1998, more than 14,000 forest fires affected nearly 850,000 hectares, an area equivalent to almost six times the size of Mexico City.
UNAM specialists warned as early as September that El Niño will not affect all of Mexico in the same way, as some regions could receive intense rainfall while others face droughts and high temperatures, depending on the time of year. Researcher Alejandro Jaramillo Moreno forecast at that time the arrival of above-normal rainfall in parts of the north and west of the country.
For 2027, specialists identified other possible impacts. UNAM researcher Jorge Zavala Hidalgo warned of a winter season with more cold fronts, some of them more severe and longer-lasting.
The strengthening of the phenomenon was documented by the SMN and the WMO during October. On October 9, the SMN reported a probability above 83% that El Niño would maintain strong to very strong intensity through the first quarter of 2027.
The SMN also reported an 83% probability of reaching historic magnitude between October and December 2026, based on estimates from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The WMO, for its part, warned that temperatures in the equatorial Pacific could reach record levels, with an average anomaly forecast of up to 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal during the last quarter of the year.
